Hey 3.5 readers.
Your old pal Bookshelf Q. Battler here.
So my usual disclaimer. I’m not going to talk politics or the pros and cons of one side or the other.
This is a nerd blog for nerd things so I want to talk about social media.
I figured a year ago Trump would win based on one thing:
He had way more Facebook likes and Twitter followers than Hillary.
Really. That’s it.
I don’t remember what it was a year ago but his Facebook and Twitter followers were more than hers and as of today he’s got roughly 4 million more Facebook likes than she does (not an exact figure, I am too lazy to do the exact math but it is close.)
I don’t have Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s figures from 2012 but I’m willing to bet Barack had more than Mitt.
And I believe this is a sign for all political watchers and armchair quarterbacks to consider:
He or she who has the most follows and likes on social media will win.
Yup. That’s how we will one day end up with President Kardashian.
But I digress.
3.5 READERS: Oh but BQB is the number of social media followers a good way to decide an election?
On the face of it, no, but the social media numbers don’t decide the election. They are an early warning sign that the public digs one candidate more than the other.
Think about it.
Social media starts out as a good idea. You can talk to like your 5 closest friends and family members that you actually want to hear from.
But then to be polite you have to add your third cousin twice removed, your long lost uncle, your pet hamster’s geography teacher’s sister’s yoga instructor.
Before you know it, your Facebook feed is filled with the rantings of tons of asshats saying things you don’t want to hear.
No pet hamster’s geography teacher’s sister’s yoga instructor! I do not give a shit what you ate for lunch today!
Your Facebook feed is valuable virtual real estate in your eyes and you give it away only if you have to.
Ergo, if you really dig a candidate, you’ll click that like so you can get brainwashed by your favorite candidate.
This isn’t a perfect science. I’m not saying someone with less followers will never win but I think that yeah, it does make a win less likely because the candidate with more followers is getting his/her message out to more people.
2008. 2012. 2016. These are the only three presidential elections where social media was a thing. And in each election (though I’m just guessing via McCain vs. Obama and Romney vs. Obama but I believe I’m right) the person with the most follows and likes won.
That’s my theory. Don’t get bogged down into the politics. Just talk about the social media science of it all.
Because as I always say, it doesn’t matter what side of the political aisle you are on, the really important thing is that you all love me and you all come together and buy the books I have yet to write if I ever get around to writing and publishing them.
Bookshelf Battle 